Rafe Furst
November 21, 2005
I often tell people that short-term results are not a reason to change
how they play, but I likewise encourage them to use any
excuse to study and analyze their game.
Recently, a player on Full Tilt Poker lamented that
he'd gone broke with A-K in his last several tourneys,
and he suspected that he was doing something wrong. A
few questions revealed that he was getting knocked out
fairly early in these tournaments when he put his A-K up
against pocket pairs for all his chips. It's a familiar
lament.
Many people fall in love with A-K pre-flop in
No-Limit Hold 'em because they know that they can rarely
be much worse than 50-50 to win the hand if they get all
of their money in heads up. While this is true, the
reverse is also true: Rarely will you be much better
than 50-50 to win an all-in showdown.
So why is A-K considered such a great starting hand?
Folding equity. Under the right conditions, you can
increase your pot equity to well over 50% by getting
your opponents to fold in situations where they
shouldn't. Here's a scenario: Blinds are $200-$400 and
Jen Harman (who has $12,000 in front of her) raises to
$1,200 from middle position with pocket tens. You
re-raise all-in for $6,000 with A-K from the button. It
is difficult for Jen to call here because, even though
she suspects you might have A-K, she knows you could
also make that play with A-A, K-K, Q-Q or J-J.
Does she want to play for half of her stack on what
figures to be, at best, a 57% favorite? You, on the
other hand, are confident that unless she has one of two
hands (AA or KK), you are no worse than 43% to win, even
if she calls. Unless Jen picks up on a tell, she is
forced to fold a hand that is actually better than your
A-K by a slight margin. Not only that, but you've also
made her give up all the extra chips in the pot (mostly
hers) that were giving her great odds to make a call.
Variants of this scenario come up all the time in
No-Limit Hold 'em.
By putting your opponents in a bind where they must
first call you and then have to beat you in a race, you
can turn a hand that is 50% to win with all the money in
pre-flop and turn it into a hand that is a 75% favorite
or better.
The mistake many inexperienced players make is not
giving their opponents a chance to fold. They look down
to find A-K and can't wait to get all their money in the
middle and race. But as we can see from the example
above, the power of A-K pre-flop really comes from the
"folding equity" you gain when you can make your
opponent lay down a hand they would not lay down if they
could see your hole cards.
Here are three keys to getting the most out of A-K
pre-flop:
1) Jam with A-K, but don't call all-in with it.
2) Raise enough when you have A-K to give your
opponents a chance to fold.
3) Don't raise so much that the only hands that are
willing to call you are the hands that have you
dominated (A-A and K-K).
To execute these plays properly, it is important to
keep in mind the size of the blinds relative to your
opponents' stacks and your own stack. A-K loses much of
its value when your opponents are short-stacked or pot
committed -- and therefore unlikely to lay down a hand
-- or when the blinds are very small relative to
everyone's stacks. These principles apply to both ring
game and tournament play. Getting back to my friend who
kept busting early in tourneys with A-K...
In the early stages of a tournament, the blinds are
very small relative to everyone's stack size. This
contributed to his breaking of each of the three rules:
(1) He was calling his opponents' all-in raises when
they had their expected pocket pairs.
(2) He was jamming only after his opponents were
pot-committed.
(3) After getting gun shy from having his A-K cracked
a few times, he made his raises way too big to "protect"
his hand, but then was only getting called once he was
beat.
This is one of those instances where looking at
short-term results can lead to long-term improvements.
Rafe Furst
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