Perry Friedman
October 17, 2005 You are in the big blind with Ts-8s against a player who smooth-called
pre-flop. The flop comes K-X-X with two spades. What do
you do?
You would like to make your flush, and you don't want
to pay too much to get there. Instinctively, you think
checking is the best way to get a free card, and you're
right.
In fact, checking is the only way to get a free card,
but it may not give you the best opportunity to make
your hand, nor will it pay you maximum value when you
make the flush.
Suppose your opponent bets the pot. Now you're
getting 2-1 to call for a 4-1 chance of making your
hand. You don't even get to see the turn card. You've
been priced out.
What happens if you lead out with a small bet? If
you're against a player who likes to slow play or a
player who will bluff you out with a big bet, a small
bet gives you the best chance of seeing the turn.
How small is a small bet? Try betting between 1/3 and
1/4 of the pot. If there is $300 in the pot and you bet
$100, you are now getting the right price to make your
flush. If you bet $75, you are now getting better than
pot odds, and this doesn't account for your implied
odds, which take into account the amount of money your
opponent will bet or call on the turn and river. If you
make your flush on the turn, and your opponent is
willing to call your $400 bet, you are getting implied
odds of $300 (current pot size on the flop) + $400
(expected amount your opponent will call on the turn) =
$700 to $100 (your bet on the flop), or 7-1.
This is an even better play when your drawing hand is
less obvious. Suppose the flop is Q-9-6. Now you are
drawing to the double gut shot straight, where a 7 or a
J makes your hand. While an 8 or a K is an obvious scare
card, a 7 looks like a card unlikely to have helped
anyone. (The risk factor here is that the J might give
you the "idiot end" of the straight against an opponent
holding K-J, and your 1/4 pot bet is exactly the right
price for him to call.)
In a tournament, this type of drawing strategy can
become a riskier and less profitable play, especially
early on. Because you start with a limited number of
chips in tournament play, your odds need to be closer to
5-1 or even 6-1 before you should consider risking them
on a draw, and potentially leaving yourself short
stacked.
The important thing when drawing is to be the
aggressor. Losing initiative leaves you vulnerable to
being priced out of the pot, whether it's by a made hand
or a bluff. If you want to see another card at the right
price, your best bet is to be the bettor.
Perry Friedman
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