Poker Tip
Clonie Gowen
March 21, 2005
It is very difficult to calculate the exact poker odds of
hitting a drawing hand when you're sitting at the poker
table. Unless you're a genius with a gift for
mathematics like Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to
do it. That leaves two options for the rest of us: The
first option is to sit at home with a calculator, figure
out the poker odds for every possible combination of draws,
and then memorize them. That way, no matter what
situation comes up, you always know the poker odds. But for
those of us without a perfect memory, there's an easier
way. Here is a simple trick for estimating those poker odds.
The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many
"outs" you have. An "out" is any card that gives you a
made hand. To do this, simply count the number of cards
available that give the hand you are drawing to. For
example: suppose you hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c
4c. You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in
the deck and you are looking at four of them -- the two
in your hand, and the two on the board. That leaves nine
clubs left in the deck, and two chances to hit one.
The trick to figuring out the approximate poker odds percentage
chance of hitting the flush is to multiply your outs
times the number of chances to hit it. In this case that
would be nine outs multiplied by two chances, or
eighteen. Then take that number, multiply times two, and
add a percentage sign. The approximate poker odds percentage of the
time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact
percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on that same
flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an
open ended straight draw with eight outs to hit the
straight (four kings and four eights). Eight outs with
two cards to come gives you sixteen outs. Multiply times
two and you will hit the straight approximately 32%
(31.46% exactly) of the time.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the
percentage stated is merely the percentage of the time
that you will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the
percentage of time that you will win the pot. You may
hit your hand and still lose. In the first example, the
Qc will pair the board and may give some article a full
house. In the second example both the Kc and the 8c will
put a possible flush on the board, giving you the
straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still,
knowing the approximate likelihood of making your hand
is a good beginning step on the road to better poker.
Clonie Gowen
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